Match Review: WBA – Manchester City

Pre-Game Questions

Raheem Sterling official debut was the biggest point of interest after his £49M transfer from Liverpool. I think he has a lot of potential and can really become the best English player, but I can’t avoid thinking he was a bit overpriced. Also, Man City's possession style presents some challenges he rarely faced as a Liverpool player.

After the starting lineups were announced, the inclusion of Wilfred Bony ahead of Sergio Aguero was a surprise, although there's not much to say about it. Aguero is probably the best striker in the Premier League and most certainly this decision had to do with his involvement in Copa America. The final talking point before the game was Pellegrini’s decision to start the season with Mangala as central defender. I must say I know Mangala pretty well and he is one of the best central defenders in the world in terms of aerial and physical ability.

But, these qualities are most often than not, over-shadowed by his fragilities: concentration and technical ability. The latter can be identified when he is pressed or has to conduct the ball. On the other hand, his concentration issues represent a major handicap as he quite often gives away silly free-kicks (too agressive!) and the occasional blunder.

First half – Two different styles collide in Silva’s playground

Trading-wise, this was the perfect example of how preparation can be useful, as this match was as predictable as it gets. Like I stated, in a more detailed way, in my Premier League review, Man City is the more dominant team in the country, playing a possession-based style with a lot of ball movement. WBA in turn, is probably one of the most direct Premier League teams, especially against strong opposition. Tony Pulis doesn't rate passing number stats as WBA game plan, once they recover possession, is based on reaching the opposition are as fast as they can. Based on this premises, the first half was played in WBA's half and Man City dominated completely. With Silva giving positioning, timing and technical abillity masterclasses, Man City reached the break leading by two goals. I have to say Silva is a joy to watch, he'll probably never play for them but for me he's a perfect example of Barcelona's DNA! 

Mixing a bit of trading in this analysis, there was not a single football reason to back WBA in this half as this match was perfectly one-sided, which is not common in the Premier League. Of course, there could be market reasons to back WBA, for instance if the price for their win was 100 with 0-0, I'd be all over it. You don’t have a choice sometimes, if someone offers you a new and functional vacuum cleaner for 1EUR, you have to buy it even if you don’t need it! Of course, it can help in your domestic duties but even if you already have one, you can always sell it on eBay for 20/25 EUR!

Second Half – No drama this time, as Kompany finishes it!

The game changed slightly in the opening minutes as WBA was able to press and force Man City to commit some minor mistakes like giving away some free-kicks. This is classic Man City and although the game was completely controlled by them, if they had conceded in this period, I could be writing a different review by now. But, nothing happened and in 58th minute Kompany sealed the win with a header from a corner kick.

Man City signings

Sterling is still adapting to the new reality as he now plays for a team who is constantly on the opposition half. This means he'll have to learn how to play with less space available. Nonetheless, after the first goal, Man City was able to do some quick transitions and it was obvious that Sterling was more adapted to this kind of play. Bottom-line being, the great players always find a way and if Sterling is the real deal he’ll find it sooner or later. 

Match Review: Stoke City - Liverpool

On to the second match review of this blog, this time with the return of Liverpool to the Britannia Stadium, where they were thumped 6-1 in the last game of 2014/15 Premier League.

Pre-Game Questions

Regarding Liverpool, I was looking forward to see the “who adapts to whom” game concerning Benteke. Brendan Rodgers opted for the most obvious and correct answer and the amount of long balls was kept low. Also, once the lineups were announced, reading “Joe Gomez” didn't ring a bell for me, so that was another point of interest, which will be further developed.

About Stoke, it's interesting to see the slow evolution they are undergoing, from the Rory Delap's days, where every throw-in in the opposition half was like a corner, to nowadays where players like Affelay and Van Ginkel are being deployed in the starting eleven.

Of course, that Stoke shirt still has magical powers as even the more technical players get aggressive when they wear it, as Affelay proved with a “welcome to Stoke” challenge on Clyne in the opening stages!

The match – If Chelsea has limp wings, Liverpool’s left one was amputated!

Don’t get me wrong, the title is not intended to bash Joe Gomez as he’s a kid who didn’t had a bad game by any means. Apart from some timing errors due to his inexperience, he was composed, played simple and didn’t gave the ball away. In fact, I’m pretty sure he did exactly what Rodgers asked him to do. The bottom-line is that his inclusion led to one of the most assymetric offensive dynamics I have ever seen, which of course didn’t benefit Liverpool at all, if their objective was to win the game. So, they had Joe Gomez as a left-back, Lallana always going from the left to the center and even the dynamics of their midfield duo was inclined to the right with the derivation of James Milner. One can argue, is Stoke’s right back so good defensively that it is not worth trying? No, Stoke’s right back is Glen Johnson whose handicap is precisely his defensive game. As a consequence, Glen Johnson had one of the easiest games of his career and I think Rodgers deserves at least a vintage wine bottle from him, as a gift for his quiet afternoon.

Of course, Rodgers also has to offer something to Coutinho who scored a goal from nothing and gave Liverpool the win when there was nothing separating the two sides.

About the game, it was very even for the vast majority of playing time, with Liverpool improving a bit on the second half especially after the Lallana-Can substitution which freed Milner and gave them more ball possession. That said, I don’t remember a save from Butland and Mignolet also had a quiet afternoon. From a trading perspective, in these types of games you should base your positions mainly on the market dynamics as there was no evident tendency in this match from a football perspective.

Liverpool Signings

Eventhough Benteke had a limited involvement in this match, he looked composed and I think he’ll play a key role for Liverpool this season, especially unlocking matches at Anfield. James Milner might be boring but he brings stability with his experience; one of the bright spots for Liverpool in this game was his partnership with Henderson (amazing player!) in the center of the park. About Joe Gomez enough was said already and Clyne performance suffered from the overcrowded right side, so I will reserve my opinion for another time although he was solid defensively.

Final Remarks

As a final remark, I don’t believe Rodgers will maintain this “right-side only” dynamic, otherwise they'll suffer soon as they have a tough schedule coming. 

Match review: Manchester United - Tottenham

The Premier League season has officially begun and with it comes the first match review of this blog. I intend to have this kind of post where I can be provide more insight on the teams I watch, mixing it with some trading talk. So let's begin:

Pre-game questions

When the starting lineups were announced two questions popped in my mind: what would be the positioning of Depay? And why is Pochettino adapting Eric Dier to a midfield position? So, Depay occupied a central position behind Rooney, with Mata deployed on the right side. This Depay positioning does not come naturally to him, as he played mainly in the left wing for PSV. Nonetheless, he has all the technical ability to thrive in this position, as he can have more impact in this central role, just like Gareth Bale under Andre Villas Boas tenure. Of course, this will take time as this game showed.

About Eric Dier, I have to say he is a very solid player whatever the position he plays, but this is starting to act against him, as he rarely gets a chance as central defender, which is where he can fulfill his potential.

First half – The tale of two different matches separated by the goal

Like the title says, the first half had two different periods: bG (before the goal) and aG (after the goal). First of all, and this happened all over the game, Manchester United has a big issue in their first phase of construction that was also obvious last season. When they start a play from their defense, they always have a hard time penetrating the opposition lines and creating something of notice. This was more obvious before the goal, where Tottenham was able to create two chances by pressing and recovering the ball in United's half. In this bG era, Tottenham was able to control the match and were clearly the better team on the pitch. And then Bentaleb misses a pass and Manchester United went ahead, so cruel! I don't remember Wayne Rooney touching the ball in this period and when he had his chance to score, Kyle Walker was too quick and did it by himself!

This leads to a trading issue: from a football perspective there was no reason to back Manchester United and nonetheless they scored. What can you do about it? You can live with it. This is football, where mistakes and goals against play happen a lot. Another question: if I was trading would I be backing Tottenham when the goal happened? It depends on the price and the market dynamics, like it always should. As an example, I love craft beer and Punk IPA is a very decent beer but would I buy a bottle for 20EUR? No, only if I was dying in the desert! Back to the game, in the aG era Man Utd construction problem persisted but the magnificent work of Carrick and Schneiderlin in a second pressing zone, lead to the recovery of several possessions in Tottenham´s half that could have led to the second goal. In this period, Tottenham was totally harmless, not being able to connect their play.

Second half –Van Gaal gambles a bit but Romero saves the day in the end

There is not much to say about the second half as there was no marked dominance by any of the teams, but the decision to give playing time to Schweinsteiger taking Carrick (solid performance as usual!) off the pitch and to put Valencia on, for the final stage, almost cost United two points. In the last minutes, Tottenham pushed United to its own half and Romero ended up as a hero with two good saves. As a final remark, it wasn't a very interesting match for the occasional viewer!

Manchester United signings

Darmian and Schneiderlin looked very good on the pitch and I believe they will have a massive role improving Man Utd defensive stability, especially in the away games. Romero looked shaky with the ball on his feet, but ended up being very important; of course, he is not De Gea and that comparison will haunt him for the rest of the season if the spaniard leaves for Real Madrid. Depay has great potential but if Van Gaal maintains the idea of playing in a central role, it will take time for him to deliver. Finally, Schweinsteiger looked rusty and unfit and it will be interesting to see how Van Gaal will accommodate him in the starting lineup.

Oh no…it's another Premier League preview! Title contenders (Part 2 of 2)

Arsenal – Getting closer, but is it enough?

Hands down, the most pleasing team to watch in the Premier League! Their offensive system is the opposite of Chelsea’s stiff regimen, very fluid with the front players constantly exchanging positions. So why the lack of Premier League titles? Individual quality! Although their weaknesses are well hidden in the system: Monreal/Gibbs, Coquelin or Giroud/Walcott are not top players. Don't get me wrong, I'm perfectly aware that the Coquelin addition to the midfield was pivotal last season and he can perfectly turn into a top player in two or three seasons. But, imagine this Arsenal team with Benzema playing upfront, William Carvalho as a defensive midfielder and Ricardo Rodriguez as a left back. Also, they are very thin in the central back position if they have injury problems. 

That said, Cech addition is wonderful as they need experienced players to inject some trust and confidence in the team, in order to overcome mental hurdles like beating Jose Mourinho's Chelsea for the first time. Trading-wise, it is possible they might be a bit underrated when playing their rivals as their history record against these teams is awful in the last years. I honestly think, this season can be a turning point for them, especially if they can sign one top player at least.

Man United – Worshiping the many-faced God!

I don't know if Louis Van Gaal is a fan of Game of Thrones but the fact is that last season his team wore many faces. Last year, it was hard to know what to expect tactically, when I was trading them: 3 defenders/4 defenders, 1 striker/2 strikers, short-passing game then Fellaini appears and they start to play the long ball game (with some success, it has to be said!), it was puzzling. At the same time, it was fascinating that, with all this tactical variance, they ended up on a morale high and pumped up for the new season. This year, Van Gaal has stated that he intends to play the 4x3x3, but I would wait to see if that's really the case. It's hard to make a preview on them, when there are still key decisions to be made in the transfer window (De Gea comes to mind!) but I can say that a long-term problem of United was finally solved: the midfield area.

To play 4x3x3, I think they need another striker, a winger and a central-defender. All being said, I take Man United as the joker of the season. From a trading perspective, all this uncertainty about them makes it hard to price them, which can lead to some value prices arising. As an example and I'm not saying that laying Man Utd pre-game or in-play tomorrow is EV+, but I look at that price and it seems a bit low for me. Bottom line: I'm very curious about Man United this year!

Final remarks

I made a short preview of the Premier League title contenders to give you an example of what I said in my second post about what you can do to prepare a match that you'll trade. The big question here is: do you know the smaller teams as well? A lot of people knows these big teams, but how many people do you know able to speak about the usual starting line-up of Crystal Palace? Not many, but even less people know how they play, who are their key players and so on. I hope you understand my point! Furthermore and making football analysis more complex, a team's key player may not be their best player. If my blog was read by a lot of people this would generate a war, but while Barcelona's key player is Lionel Messi, in my opinion Real Madrid's key player, throughout Ancelotti tenure, was not Cristiano Ronaldo but Luka Modric!

I´ll elaborate on that in the future with a post about what makes a player invaluable to a team!

Oh no…it's another Premier League preview! Title contenders (Part 1 of 2)

Premier League previews are springing everywhere, so I'll give it a try building on my last post about managers! This preview will be reviewed in the beginning of September, after the transfer deadline, as I still expect some game-changing market moves.

Chelsea – Champions with limp wings!

Watch several Chelsea matches and focus your attention on Eden Hazard, he is the best Premier League player so it should not be that bad! Key questions: where is he receiving the ball? How many opposing players does he have to face before entering a danger zone? Do the same exercise with Lionel Messi under Luis Enrique tenure! The point here is that Chelsea attacking system is so stiff and risk averse that the weight of creation is on Hazard shoulders since the first phase of construction. 

In a sense, Eden Hazard has to be Chelsea's Schrödinger Cat, especially while Diego Costa is spending time with Eva Carneiro in the medical department. The limp wings issue doesn't help the cause as Azpilicueta plays on the left while being right-footed and Ivanovic is a defensive minded right back (the best in the world if football was just defending). Enough of all this negativity, they are the champions and the favourites for the Premier League title, but why? Because they are by far the most solid Premier League side from a defensive and mental perspective! Jose Mourinho is a genius war strategist and he knows that this defensive stability differentiates them from the other rivals! Is it pretty? No, and it's also very risky, especially if they can't revive Falcão, as they will be completely dependent on two players: Hazard and Diego Costa.

Nonetheless, I believe they will buy an offensive minded left-back to improve the team offensive dynamic. Also, in the beginning of last season Chelsea proved to be capable of playing free-flowing attacking football (with Fabregas exceling!) so a lot can change during the season. All being said, I think they are fairly classified as top dog!

Man City – Do we really need to defend?

First of all, I admire Manuel Pellegrini! His football conception really makes the most technically gifted players shine: Riquelme (Villarreal), Isco (Malaga) and now Silva are good examples. They play a suffocating possession-style football and it’s not unusual to see them exchanging passes in the final-third of the pitch with the opposition defense inside their own goal area. 

The Citizens are the most dominant team in the Premier League and when things go their way they can really thrash the opposition. During the season, you´ll get some 5-0, 6-1 results for them which you won't get from Chelsea. Attacking-wise, they know it all as they can also hurt the opposition with fast transitions. That said, Pellegrini has a total disregard for the defensive organization of the team. The transfer window it´s still open, but the fact they bought Sterling and are associated with De Bruyne, when Martin Demichelis is a potential starter baffles me. I'm maybe being too harsh as Pellegrini defensive paradigm makes defenders look bad, but still, Demichelis is not a top player anymore. 

One can say that Pellegrini goes by the saying, “if you have the ball, you can´t concede” and truth be told, they can impose their possession game in the vast majority of Premier League matches but, when they play top European teams, in Champions League, their fragilities are exposed big time. I love trading those games, is a shame they only come 3 or 4 times per year! Still, if Bony can help Aguero transform their possession in more goals (which was a problem last year!) as a solution to compensate their defensive woes, they can be a very dangerous contender to dethrone Chelsea.

The fallacy of the great manager!

My second post will be about managers, namely what makes a great manager, an example of an overrated manager and why is this important when you trade!

The definition of consensual metrics to rank professionals, in a reasonable way, it´s a tough issue in several areas and football it’s not an exception. So, the easiest way to rate a manager is based on titles, but is it fair? Ok, silverware is the ultimate goal of every football club, so of course it must be one of the rating items, although it is clear that the chance of winning titles depends on the club you are managing. As an example, if you put the twenty best coaches in the world in the Premier League, there would be only one champion, there would still be three relegated teams and probably the same number of sackings as usual. So it is all a matter of perspective.

When I´m rating a manager from a trading perspective, and throughout the years I created a comprehensive database on that, I rate winning the national league as a higher achievement than winning cup competitions. The reasoning behind this, is the same as why I value a 38 game sample more than a 10 game one, as a trader; in one word: variance. As an example, Roberto di Matteo won the Champions League with Chelsea, is he a great manager? I don´t think so. For a manager with some experience, I also tend to look at past jobs and understanding what the club was before and after the arrival of said manager. An obvious success example that comes to mind is the legacy of Sir Alex Ferguson in Manchester United.

Finally, the most important aspects as a trader: the way the team is organized on the pitch, if it has a clear identity or if it adapts to the opposition and the team’s playing style. Why is this important as a trader? Football like other sports has a high unpredictability component, so the best you can do to prepare for a game is try to understand how it will be played, based on the playing styles of the managers. Practical and simple example: if you see Swansea being forced to play long balls as a consequence of a high pressure strategy from the opposition, it is a really bad sign for their chances as they have a very marked identity of playing a short passing game, which is very pleasing by the way! I must say I admire the vision of the Swansea board to choose managers: Roberto Martinez, Paulo Sousa, Brendan Rodgers and Michael Laudrup. Gary Monk was a player under all these coaches and seems to share the same ideas.

By the way, have a look at Fiorentina this season. They already had a good manager in Vincenzo Montella, but I rate Paulo Sousa very highly and I think he will become a top coach in the years to come. Watch Basel vs Real Madrid from last season if you want to know why! If you are lazy like me, the answer is: great football ideas, which if applied to a better set of players can turn into great things.

This leads me to speak about Carlo Ancelotti as the perfect example of what I call the fallacy of the great manager. As a disclaimer, I understand why he is always appointed to the top clubs as he has a lot of important qualities for this type of job: a gentleman, brilliant manager of egos, well-spoken, high-profile and of course 3 Champions League titles. The fact is that he is training top clubs (Juventus, Milan, Chelsea, PSG and Real Madrid) since 1999 and in a total of 16 seasons he won a total of 3 league titles. Furthermore, he always had at least the same and usually more financial means that the rival managers. On the pitch, it is not great either; as a recent example, in Real Madrid he could never impose a balanced possession style. Instead, he developed an unbalanced fast transitions system, which was able to demolish the small clubs (while often conceding goals) but always had trouble against similar or well-managed opposition. Of course if you join Ronaldo, Bale, Modric, Kroos/Xabi Alonso, Benzema and James Rodriguez/ Di Maria on the same pitch you will get magic moments often and that´s why they trashed Bayern, in the 2014 CL semi-final, with some trademark lethal offensive transitions! The bottom-line is: if you train top players you will always have a change of winning titles and that´s why some public opinion misconceptions arise when it comes to rate managers!