Arsenal – Getting
closer, but is it enough?
Hands down, the most
pleasing team to watch in the Premier
League! Their offensive system is the opposite of Chelsea’s stiff regimen, very
fluid with the front players constantly exchanging positions. So why the lack
of Premier League titles? Individual quality! Although their weaknesses are
well hidden in the system: Monreal/Gibbs, Coquelin or Giroud/Walcott are not
top players. Don't get me wrong, I'm perfectly aware that the Coquelin addition
to the midfield was pivotal last season and he can perfectly turn into a top
player in two or three seasons. But, imagine this Arsenal team with Benzema
playing upfront, William Carvalho as a defensive midfielder and Ricardo
Rodriguez as a left back. Also, they are very thin in the central back position
if they have injury problems.
That said, Cech addition is wonderful as they
need experienced players to inject some trust and confidence in the team, in
order to overcome mental hurdles like beating Jose Mourinho's Chelsea for the
first time. Trading-wise, it is possible they might be a bit underrated when
playing their rivals as their history record against these teams is awful in
the last years. I honestly think, this season can be a turning point for them,
especially if they can sign one top player at least.
Man United – Worshiping
the many-faced God!
I don't know if Louis
Van Gaal is a fan of Game of Thrones but the fact is that last season his team wore
many faces. Last year, it was hard to know what to expect tactically, when I was
trading them: 3 defenders/4 defenders, 1 striker/2 strikers, short-passing game
then Fellaini appears and they start to play the long ball game (with some
success, it has to be said!), it was puzzling. At the same time, it was
fascinating that, with all this tactical variance, they ended up on a morale high
and pumped up for the new season. This year, Van Gaal has stated that he
intends to play the 4x3x3, but I would wait to see if that's really the case. It's
hard to make a preview on them, when there are still key decisions to be made
in the transfer window (De Gea comes to mind!) but I can say that a long-term
problem of United was finally solved: the midfield area.
To play 4x3x3, I think
they need another striker, a winger and a central-defender. All being said, I take Man United
as the joker of the season. From a trading perspective, all this uncertainty
about them makes it hard to price them, which can lead to some value prices
arising. As an example and I'm not saying that laying Man Utd pre-game or in-play tomorrow
is EV+, but I look at that price and it seems a bit low for me. Bottom line: I'm
very curious about Man United this year!
Final remarks
I made a short preview
of the Premier League title contenders to give you an example of what I said in
my second post about what you can do to prepare a match that you'll trade. The
big question here is: do you know the smaller teams as well? A lot of people
knows these big teams, but how many people do you know able to speak about the
usual starting line-up of Crystal Palace? Not many, but even less people know
how they play, who are their key players and so on. I hope you understand my
point! Furthermore and making football analysis more complex, a team's key player may
not be their best player. If my blog was read by a lot of people this would
generate a war, but while Barcelona's key player is Lionel Messi, in my opinion
Real Madrid's key player, throughout Ancelotti tenure, was not Cristiano Ronaldo but
Luka Modric!
I´ll elaborate on that in the future with a post about what makes
a player invaluable to a team!
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