Friday 18 September 2015

It’s time for a follow-up on my Premier League preview! (Part 2 of 2)

The second part of the follow-up on my Premier League preview comes with a delay, but as someone said: “better late than never”.


Arsenal – Getting closer, but is it enough? I don’t think so!


The title is a reference to my preview, where I stated they lack individual quality to win the English Premier League. Based on this, I was expecting the arrival of at least a top player. No one arrived, so Mr. Wenger has to stick with Walcott/Giroud upfront, Coquelin as defensive midfielder and Gibbs/Monreal at the left-back position. They are not bad players but saying Arsenal could only improve these positions with top players, like Mr. Wenger stated, is a fallacy. Of course, it would be the ideal situation, but there are a lot of players who could improve them, at least from a depth perspective. This depth problem was exposed against Liverpool and a bit against Dinamo Zagreb, especially at the center-back position, where the inclusion of Gabriel and/or Chambers represent a major decrease in quality.


To add to that, I honestly think Walcott doesn’t fit as a striker in Arsenal's possession game. He is mainly dangerous in one match moment, the defensive-offensive transition, if given space to explore his pace; ironically enough, Arsenal plays in the opposition half most of the time, with limited space for Walcott to be effective. Apart from all the negative points stated, I still think they are the most pleasant side to watch in the Premier League with a very fluid attacking system. 

The markets consider them to be second favorites to win the EPL with an odd of 5.8 but I really can’t see that happening. In fact, I think they'll receive a reality check from Chelsea on Saturday. Like always, when it comes to football predictions, I may well be the idiot when Chelsea vs Arsenal finishes!


Man United – Divide and conquer 2.0 by Louis Van Gaal


Like I said before, I don’t fully understand Louis Van Gaal, both tactically and from a man management perspective. I get puzzled over and over again by his options: there’s the De Gea/Valdes/Romero riddle, shipping Javier Hernandez to Leverkusen while playing Fellaini as a striker, preferring Young over Nani, going for a tremendous overpriced deal for Martial at the deadline and the list could go on. 

When it comes to Man United, Alex Ferguson will always be the benchmark and one of his secrets was always being able to provide the ideal conditions for second-line players to excel. Everyone will remember the top class players he managed, but for every Ronaldo, Giggs or Vidic there was Evans, Fletcher or the aforementioned Chicharito who were vital as the seasons went on.


Van Gaal seems to prefer a ruthless approach, which leaves him with a short number of valid options as the individual player quality is above the system. In this sense, I think Shaw's injury will be very detrimental to their defense, especially if Blind is deployed at left-back and Rojo enters the team.


That said, their midfield pressing is a bright spot this season, which makes them a lot more dangerous without the ball. When they have to dominate possession, problems arise as their build-up issues from last season are still there and pretty evident. Finally, the markets priced them above Chelsea to win the EPL, at 12.5, which is hard for me to understand even with a 6 point difference between them.


Honorable mention – Tottenham


Although they lack the top 4 individual quality, Tottenham is a very well managed team, which will receive a massive boost from Heung-Ming Son arrival. Pochettino’s approach is based on possession-style football, with two of the best central backs, in the EPL, offensive-wise and two top players in Kane and especially Eriksen. At the moment, they would be my pick for the 5th place.

Thursday 3 September 2015

It’s time for a follow-up on my Premier League preview! (Part 1 of 2)

Like promised and as the transfer market is now closed, I’ll take a look on the effect of late signings and the first four Premier League weeks on title contenders’ chances. So, let’s begin with the champions with limp wings…

Chelsea – Offensive limp wings become permeable defensively…

In my Premier League preview, I talked about the limp wings issue which consists in the lack of offensive threat offered by Chelsea’s full backs. The first four fixtures confirmed this idea but a new and more serious problem arose: defensive stability, which was one of the keys to 14/15 title, is gone. Ivanovic, who has always been reliable defensively, is being constantly exposed by the opposition and John Terry seems past his prime. Although there is individual fault involved, I think Chelsea’s defensive problem is more systemic, as it’s also not usual for them, to have Ivanovic exposed to 1v1 situations, so frequently. 


Hazard’s Schrödinger cat issue is also evident this season as he can’t be in the first line of creation and be expected to finish at the same time. Probably, Pedro arrival will ease his burden and also help Ivanovic defensively on the right. This was quite a capture for Chelsea, which had a good transfer window. In Baba Rahman they have an offensive-minded left back, which might shift Azpilicueta to right back, and represent the key to solve the limp wings issue. Of course, everybody’s writing them off already, as they are 8 points off Manchester City, but don’t forget there are 34 fixtures to play and with a weaker squad on paper, they did 87 points last season.

Man City – Defensively permeable in 14/15 to Defensive fortress in 15/16

I told you they were the most dominant side in the Premier League in my preview and the first Premier League weeks confirmed that idea. Furthermore, the inclusion of Sterling is being a success as their possession-style football benefits from the width he and Navas offer. This is the reason why I’m a bit skeptic about the inclusion of Kevin De Bruyne in the starting eleven as some positional redundancy will be introduced.


Don’t get me wrong, he is a great player but there's more to football than picking eleven players and sending them to the pitch. In this particular case, I think he tends to occupy Silva’s territory and you know my opinion: there’s only one David Silva! Pellegrini must have a plan for the Belgian, and I’m looking forward to see how it will play out. Defensively-wise, I have to say: I’m amazed with their evolution. Mangala is playing very well, but especially the defensive midfield work has been stellar with Fernandinho exceling. Furthermore, they signed Otamendi who I rate as one of the best central backs in the game. 

They look very strong on paper and on the pitch, and it will be very interesting to see their Champions League campaign. Truth must be said though, they are getting some bad karma out of their spending ways, as their draws are always nasty.


I still think they'll be defensively exposed against Euopean top teams, but they are certainly stronger this year. They surpassed Chelsea as favorites, for the Premier League title, and rightly so, but I don’t think the title race is over, as the season is long and full of terrors!